This is an open call for someone willing to take the other side of a poorly defined bet: In the 2020s we’ll see elected federal officials proposing changes and cuts to university funding on culturally motivated grounds.
Federal policy towards universities is at the intersection of three trends.
Universities have become politicized institutions. I don’t think there’s any good faith arguments left that higher education in aggregate isn’t at least a liberal if not leftist political institution. This was a grassroots change demanded from within campuses themselves, and top-down or external pressure doesn’t have the power to reverse this politicization anymore.
Political re-alignment from conservative vs. liberal to urban vs. rural or elite vs. commoners or somewhere vs. nowheres, whatever you want to call it. Universities used to be cradles of power for both parties, but if the current realignment continues, we’ll have a Republican party that can authentically position themselves as outsiders to our higher ed institutions.
Student funding and university costs are becoming politically urgent on the left. If the left opens the door to reforming higher ed support, they’ll lose the leverage of being able to keep the door shut.
Universities are viewed by most conservatives as ground zero of identity politics and leftist relativism and it’s only a matter of time before politicians realize that there’s an appetite for “hitting back” and that they have a lot of tools at their disposal. It’ll be significantly less crazy than Beto standing on the debate stage and suggesting we strip churches of non-profit status- there’s no arsenal of constitutional law precedent to protect universities. There are lots of interesting levers that can be pulled.
Making student loans dischargeable in bankruptcy. Legislation in the 80s and 90s targeted student loans with specific rules preventing discharge out of fear of abuse. Democrats are understandably attempting to amend this to allow bankruptcy even though that’s not a practical solution for most who already have large debt. Interestingly though, a significant unintended consequence of our existing laws is that student loans are significantly less risky because there’s almost no threat of discharge. If we put it back on the table, we’ll tilt the market and make student loans significantly more expensive. Pair this with significant federal loan reform and the business model of the university will break.
Restricting federal research funds to hard sciences. STEM funding is politically unassailable, but funding that could wind up funding gender studies is not. My uninformed impression is that the funding ecosystem is so complex that this kind of change isn’t likely to come from the bureaucratic level. If it happens it’s going to require political force.
Tying federal student loan aid to particular outcomes like STEM degrees. The effect would be directionally the same as #2, but control over student aid is more concentrated in the Department of Education than the sprawling field of 50 federal institutions separately funding research which makes it more amenable to political alteration.